World Bank on Climate Change and Migration

Context:

The second part of the Groundswell report examined how the impacts of slow-onset climate change such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels could lead to millions of what it describes as “climate migrants” by 2050 under three different scenarios with varying degrees of climate action and development.

Relevance:

GS-II: International Relations (Important International Institutions, Important Reports), GS-III: Environment and Ecology (Climate Change and its impact)

Dimensions of the Article:

1. Highlights of the report Groundswell report

Highlights of the report Groundswell report

• The report warns that the impact of slow-onset climate change, such as water scarcity, decreasing crop productivity and rising sea levels, could lead to millions of “climate migrants” by 2050.
• Under the most pessimistic scenario of climate change, with a high level of emissions and unequal development, the report forecasts up to 216 million people to leave their homes in the next three decades.
• In the most climate-friendly scenario, with a low level of emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, the world could still see 44 million people being forced to leave their homes.
• The report analysed six regions – Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.
• The report considers three different scenarios with varying degrees of climate action and development. These include:
  1. Most pessimistic scenario with a high level of emissions and unequal development: The report forecasts up to 216 million people moving within their own countries across the six regions analysed. Those regions are Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.
  2. In the most climate-friendly scenario, with a low level of emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, the world could still see 44 million people being forced to leave their homes.
  3. In the worst-case scenario, Sub-Saharan Africa — the most vulnerable region due to desertification, fragile coastlines and the population’s dependence on agriculture — would see the most migrants, with up to 86 million people moving within national borders.
• North Africa is predicted to have the largest proportion of climate migrants, with 19 million people moving, equivalent to roughly 9% of its population.
• In South Asia, Bangladesh remains the most vulnerable.
• The findings of the report indicate the potency of climate to induce migration within countries.
• The report also calls for urgent action to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap to reduce the vulnerability of the poor.

-Source: The Hindu