Context : IMD’s Monsoon Outlook for 2025:
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has ruled out the possibility of an El Nino event during the southwest monsoon season of 2025.
- El Nino is associated with warming in the central equatorial Pacific, often leading to reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
- According to IMD, neutral El Nino conditions are expected instead, where the temperature in the Pacific remains steady, neither warming nor cooling significantly.
Relevance : GS 3(Environment and Ecology)
Past El Nino and its Impact:
- 2023: An El Nino year, leading to a 6% rainfall deficit in India.
- 2024: A neutral condition year, resulting in an 8% surplus in rainfall.
Neutral Conditions and Uncertainty:
- While neutral El Nino conditions do not typically indicate drastic changes in temperature, they have sometimes been linked with below-normal rainfall in India.
- The impact of neutral conditions on Indian monsoon is less predictable than El Nino or La Nina, requiring a close watch on regional and oceanic factors that may affect the monsoon.
Seasonal Temperature Forecast:
- Summer months (April to June) are expected to see above-normal temperatures across India.
- India typically experiences 4 to 7 heatwave days during these months, with temperatures exceeding 45°C or a rise of more than 5°C from the normal average.
- This year, some regions of eastern India could experience up to 10 heatwave days.
Future Outlook:
- April Forecast: IMD’s first monsoon rainfall forecast will be released in April, which will provide more clarity on how these conditions will manifest.
- This forecast will include regional factors, such as conditions in the Indian Ocean, which can also influence rainfall and temperatures in the subcontinent.
Conclusion:
- The absence of an El Nino means that while reduced rainfall is unlikely, the possibility of regional variations in rainfall due to other oceanic and atmospheric conditions remains.
- The anticipated above-normal summer temperatures could exacerbate the risks of heatwaves in certain regions, especially in the eastern parts of India.
