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Study Predicts Dramatic Rise in Global Cancer Cases and Deaths by 2050

Context:

A recent publication in the journal “Cancer” has revealed a concerning forecast for global health, predicting an 84.3% increase in cancer cases among men and a 93.2% rise in cancer deaths by the year 2050, relative to the data from 2022. This significant expected increase highlights a severe public health challenge that will demand comprehensive strategies and enhanced medical infrastructure to manage the growing burden of cancer effectively. This study serves as a call to action for global health authorities to prioritize cancer research and healthcare planning to address this looming crisis.

Relevance:

GS II: Health

Dimensions of the Article:

  1. About Cancer
  2. Key Insights from the Cancer Study
  3. Cancer Prevalence in India

About Cancer

  • Cancer is a widely feared disease that leads to many deaths globally, including in India where more than a million people suffer from it annually.
  • The mechanisms behind the development, treatment and control of cancer have been extensively studied in the field of biology and medicine.
  • In healthy individuals, cell growth and differentiation are tightly controlled, but in cancer, these regulatory mechanisms break down.
  • Normal cells have a property called contact inhibition, which prevents them from growing uncontrollably when in contact with other cells.
  • However, cancer cells appear to lose this property, leading to the uncontrolled growth and division of cells, resulting in tumors.
Types of Tumors
  • Tumors are of two types:
    • Benign 
    • Malignant
  • Benign tumors normally remain confined to their original location and do not spread to other parts of the body and cause little damage.
  • The malignant tumors, on the other hand are a mass of proliferating cells called neoplastic or tumor cells. These cells grow very rapidly, invading and damaging the surrounding normal tissues.
Causes of Cancer
  • Cancer is caused by the transformation of normal cells into cancerous neoplastic cells. This transformation can be triggered by physical, chemical or biological agents called carcinogens.
  • These agents include ionizing radiations such as X-rays and gamma rays, non-ionizing radiations such as UV rays, and chemical carcinogens found in tobacco smoke.
  • Cancer-causing viruses, known as oncogenic viruses, also have genes called viral oncogenes that can contribute to the development of cancer.
  • Additionally, certain genes called cellular oncogenes or proto oncogenes in normal cells can be activated under certain conditions, resulting in the oncogenic transformation of cells.

Key Insights from the Cancer Study

  • Projected Increases by 2050: The study forecasts that the number of cancer cases in men will reach 19 million, with deaths likely to hit 10.5 million.
  • Significant Growth in Specific Cancers: Mesothelioma cases are predicted to rise by 105.5%, prostate cancer deaths by 136.4%, and testicular cancer will see a rise of 22.7% in incidences and 40% in deaths.
  • Dominance of Lung Cancer: Lung cancer is anticipated to continue as the predominant cancer in terms of both new cases and deaths, expecting an over 87% increase from 2022 figures.
  • Disparities Observed: In 2022, there were about 10.3 million cases and 5.4 million deaths globally, with a significant proportion of these cases being in adults aged 65 and older.
  • Impact of HDI: The report suggests a 50.2% increase in cancer cases in very high HDI countries and a 138.6% increase in low HDI countries by 2050.
  • Rising Death Rates: Cancer deaths are set to increase by 63.9% in very high HDI countries and 141.6% in low HDI countries.
  • Mortality-to-Incidence Ratios: High mortality-to-incidence ratios were noted, especially in older men and in countries with low HDI, indicating poor prognosis for these groups.

Cancer Prevalence in India

  • Current Statistics: In 2022, India reported 1,413,316 new cancer cases, with a slightly higher proportion of female patients.
  • Leading Cancers: Breast cancer leads with 192,020 new cases, making up 13.6% of all cases and 26% among women.
  • Other Common Cancers: Following breast cancer are cancers of the lip and oral cavity, cervix, uterine, lung, and esophageal.
  • Regional Impact of Smokeless Tobacco: Smokeless tobacco products are linked to a significant percentage of oral cavity cancers in India, as reflected in the global data where India accounts for 32.9% of the deaths.
  • Global Context: India represents 23% of the global deaths from cervical cancer, with a five-year survival rate at 51.7%, which is lower compared to more developed countries.

-Source: Down To Earth


August 2024
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