Political Turbulence in Bangladesh

Context:

Following the resignation of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after weeks of violent protests, India’s relationship with Bangladesh has potentially entered a period of uncertainty. In response to the political upheaval, the Army Chief in Bangladesh has announced the establishment of an interim government to govern the country during this transitional phase. This development could have significant implications for bilateral relations and regional stability.

Relevance:

GS II: International Relation

Dimensions of the Article:

1. Bangladesh’s Political Evolution and Bilateral Ties with India
2. India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations
3. Points of Tensions Between India and Bangladesh
4. Way Forward

Bangladesh’s Political Evolution and Bilateral Ties with India

Political Landscape of Bangladesh

• Founding Era: Bangladesh, established in 1971, saw its first Prime Minister as Sheikh Mujibur Rahman from the Awami League. His leadership ended tragically with his assassination in 1975.
• Military Influence (1975-1990):
  • Initiated with Chief Justice Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayem taking over as president, followed by military control.
  • General Ziaur Rahman served as president from 1977 until his assassination in 1981, succeeded by Abdus Sattar who was later overthrown in 1982 by Army Chief H M Ershad. Ershad resigned in 1990 amidst widespread unrest.
• Civil Governance:
  • Leaders like Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina, Mujibur Rahman’s daughter, alternated in power, facing political unrest and coups, notably in 1996 and leading to military-influenced governance till 2008.
• Restoration and Stability Post-2008:
  • Sheikh Hasina regained control, stabilizing governance by reducing military influence and promoting secular principles established by the Supreme Court in 2010.

India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations

• Historical and Cultural Bonds:
  • The relationship dates back to the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, with India providing vital support for Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan.
• Challenges and Resolutions:
  • Post-independence, relations experienced strains over boundary disputes and water-sharing issues, significantly improving with the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty initiated during Sheikh Hasina’s term from 1996.
• Economic and Trade Dynamics:
  • India is a major trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching $12.9 billion. However, recent times saw a contraction in exports by 9.5% to $11 billion.
  • A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is under discussion to accommodate Bangladesh’s upcoming transition out of LDC status by 2026.
• Energy and Infrastructure Collaboration:
  • Bangladesh imports significant electricity from India and participates in major projects like the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant and the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.
  • India has provided four lines of credit, summing up to USD 8 billion, primarily for infrastructure enhancements.
• Cultural and Humanitarian Exchanges:
  • Cultural interactions are supported through entities like the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka, promoting people-to-people contacts and fostering relations between the youth of both nations.

Points of Tensions Between India and Bangladesh

• River Water Sharing:
  • Despite sharing 54 common rivers, only two treaties (Ganga Waters Treaty and Kushiyara River Treaty) have been signed, leaving issues concerning major rivers like Teesta and Feni unresolved.
• Illegal Migration:
  • The persistent issue of illegal migration from Bangladesh to India, including refugees and economic migrants, creates strain in Indian border states, impacting resources and security.
• Rohingya Crisis:
  • Rohingya refugees entering India through Bangladesh pose a challenge, leading to concerns over resources and security in Indian border states. The National Register of Citizens (NRC) in India has raised apprehensions in Bangladesh.
• Cross-Border Issues:
  • Incidents of cross-border drug smuggling, human trafficking, and poaching of animal and bird species are significant challenges.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI):
  • Bangladesh’s active participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while India abstains, creates a potential source of tension as China’s influence in the region could affect India’s strategic standing.

Way Forward:

• Establish joint task forces with law enforcement agencies from both countries to combat cross-border drug smuggling and human trafficking effectively.
• Promote shared intelligence and coordinated operations to disrupt illegal networks operating across borders.
• Implement smart border management solutions utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics to streamline cross-border movements, ensuring both security and efficiency.
• Establish a digital connectivity corridor focusing on high-speed internet connectivity, digital services, and e-commerce to create new avenues for trade, collaboration, and technological exchange between India and Bangladesh.

-Source: Indian Express