Content:
- Inflation and Economic Trends in India
- India – New Zealand announce launch of FTA negotiations
Inflation and Economic Trends in India
India’s inflation moderates to 3.6% amid falling food prices, while industrial growth and corporate earnings strengthen, supported by expected RBI rate cuts.These are major findings of the SBI Ecowrap report, published by the State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department.
Relevance : GS 3(Economy)
CPI Inflation Trends
- Headline CPI inflation fell to 3.6% in February 2025, a 7-month low, primarily due to a sharp drop in vegetable prices.
- Food & Beverages inflation declined by 185 basis points (m-o-m) to 3.84%.
- Vegetable prices saw the steepest fall, with CPI turning negative (-1.07%) for the first time in 20 months.
- Major contributors: Garlic, potatoes, and tomatoes.
- Garlic prices declined significantly, possibly due to dietary changes during the Maha Kumbh (shift away from non-vegetarian food).
- Fruit inflation surged to 14.8%, a 10-year high, due to increased demand during religious fasting periods.
- Fuel and Light inflation remained in deflation for 18 consecutive months.
- Core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) crossed 4% for the first time in 14 months, reaching 4.08%.
- This suggests a stable underlying inflation trend, driven by services and non-food manufacturing.
Future CPI Inflation Projections
- Expected to moderate further to 3.9% in Q4 FY25 and average 4.7% for FY25.
- Projected range for FY26: 4.0-4.2% (headline CPI) and 4.2-4.4% (core inflation).
- Monetary policy response:
- RBI likely to cut rates by at least 75 basis points (bps) in 2025, with reductions expected in April and August.
- A pause is expected post-August before the next cycle of rate cuts in October 2025.
State-wise Inflation
- Rural inflation remains higher than urban inflation, driven by food price trends and larger food baskets in rural areas (54.2% vs. 36.3% in urban).
- Highest inflation recorded in:
- Kerala (7.3%) – Rural: 8.0%, Urban: 4.5%.
- Chhattisgarh (4.9%) – Rural: 5.6%, Urban: 3.3%.
- Lowest inflation recorded in:
- Telangana (1.3%) – Rural: 0.5%, Urban: 1.3%.
- Delhi (1.5%) – Rural: 2.6%, Urban: 3.5%.
- Rural inflation continues to outpace urban inflation due to higher food dependency.
Rising Imported Inflation
- Share of imported inflation surged from 1.3% in June 2024 to 31.1% in February 2025.
- Key drivers:
- Precious metals, oils, and fats – global price rise impacting domestic inflation.
- Chemical products – higher import costs passed onto consumers.
- Energy inflation contribution remained negative, indicating a decline in global oil prices or increased domestic production.
Industrial Growth and IIP Expansion
- Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded by 5.0% in January 2025, the highest in 8 months.
- Growth drivers:
- Manufacturing: 5.5%
- Mining: 4.4%
- Primary goods: 5.5%
- Consumer Durables (long-term goods): 7.2% – reflecting demand recovery.
- Intermediate goods: 5.23% – indicating expansion in industrial supply chains.
- Consumer Non-Durables (-0.2%) – slight contraction, suggesting weak demand for FMCG goods.
Corporate Performance (Q3 FY25)
- Revenue growth: 6.2% (y-o-y).
- EBITDA growth: 11% – improved margins.
- Profit After Tax (PAT) growth: 12% – strong financial performance.
- Interest Coverage Ratio improved by 20 bps, indicating lower financial stress.
- Sectoral Trends:
- Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, FMCG, Healthcare, and Pharmaceuticals saw strong growth.
- More than 4000 listed corporates reported improved earnings.
- Corporate Ex-BFSI (more than 3400 entities) showed revenue growth of 5% and PAT growth of 9%, recovering from previous quarters’ negative growth.
Monetary Policy and Corporate Capex Cycle
- Favorable conditions for a new capital expenditure (capex) cycle due to:
- Stronger corporate balance sheets.
- Lower borrowing costs from expected RBI rate cuts.
- Liquidity improvement and rising investment confidence.
- EBITDA margins expanded by 44 bps in Q3 FY25, reaching 14.84% (vs. 14.4% in Q2 FY25).
Conclusion
- India’s economic landscape in February 2025 indicates:
- Moderation in inflation (particularly in food & beverages).
- Improved industrial production and IIP growth.
- Strong corporate earnings and balance sheet strength.
India – New Zealand announce launch of FTA negotiations
Background of India-New Zealand Relations
- Democratic values & people-to-people ties: Both countries share strong democratic institutions and historical cultural exchanges, including the Indian diaspora in New Zealand.
- Economic complementarities: India’s large consumer market and New Zealand’s expertise in agriculture and dairy present mutual opportunities.
- Bilateral trade history: The two nations have engaged in trade and investment discussions previously, but no formal FTA has been signed.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)
Highlights of the Announcement
- FTA negotiations launched on March 16, 2025, during a bilateral meeting between Indian PM Narendra Modi and New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon.
- Objective: Establishing a comprehensive and mutually beneficial FTA to strengthen economic cooperation.
Expected Economic & Trade Benefits
- Market access: Reduction of tariffs and trade barriers to facilitate smoother flow of goods and services.
- Supply chain integration: Improving trade logistics and connectivity for key industries.
- Diverse sectoral impact:
- Agriculture & dairy: New Zealand’s strengths in dairy, meat, and horticulture could find a wider market in India.
- IT & Services: India’s robust IT and service sectors could benefit from increased New Zealand market access.
- Education: Potential boost in student exchanges and collaboration in skill development.
- Tourism: Strengthened economic ties may lead to enhanced tourism flows between the two nations.
Challenges & Concerns
- Agricultural sensitivities: India’s domestic dairy industry may face challenges due to competition from New Zealand’s dairy exports.
- Tariff asymmetry: Negotiations must address differences in tariff structures to ensure balanced benefits.
- Regulatory differences: Compliance and standardization of trade rules will be crucial for seamless execution.
- Geopolitical considerations: Both countries must align trade strategies with broader geopolitical and Indo-Pacific security interests.
Strategic & Geopolitical Implications
- Indo-Pacific engagement: Strengthening economic ties aligns with India’s Act East Policy and New Zealand’s interest in the Indo-Pacific.
- Diversifying trade partnerships: India seeks to reduce trade dependence on specific countries, while New Zealand aims to expand markets beyond China.
- Multilateral trade dynamics: The FTA could complement India’s participation in regional economic forums like RCEP and CPTPP.
Way Forward
- Balanced negotiations: Ensuring equitable trade benefits for both nations.
- Sectoral consultations: Engaging stakeholders from agriculture, services, and technology sectors to address concerns.
- Regulatory harmonization: Establishing frameworks for dispute resolution, quality standards, and investment protection.
- Timeline & Implementation: Negotiating a phased implementation to ease the transition for key industries.
