Background of Myanmar’s Political Crisis
- Myanmar’s military coup (Feb 2021) faced mass public disapproval, sparking a civil disobedience movement.
- Armed resistance emerged through People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs).
- Tatmadaw’s countermeasures included heavy bombardment, especially in Sagaing, Chin, and Kachin regions, affecting India’s Northeast border security.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)
Refugee Influx and Border Management Challenges
- Approximately 95,600 Myanmar refugees in India (UNHCR, Dec 2024), with 73,400 arriving post-coup.
- Ethnic overlap (Mizo-Chin-Kuki) across the India-Myanmar border fuels both empathy (Mizoram) and tension (Manipur).
- Manipur’s Concerns: Refugee influx intensifies the Meitei-Kuki conflict and threatens ethnic balance.
- India plans to abolish the Free Movement Regime (FMR) to address demographic concerns; revised framework allows restricted movement within 10 km of the border.
Economic and Strategic Setbacks
- Border trade at Moreh (Manipur) has significantly declined, affecting India’s Act East Policy ambitions.
- Progress on the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway is stalled.
- Economic downturn along borders affects livelihoods, hindering Northeast India’s integration with Southeast Asia.
Comparative Perspective: India vs. China
- China’s Response:
- Strengthened border security with fencing.
- Engages with EAOs and uses economic leverage via UNSC influence.
- India’s Constraints:
- Operates within a liberal democratic setup without UNSC leverage.
- Lacks China’s flexibility to engage with Myanmar’s diverse actors.
Key Urgent Measures Needed
- Curtail insurgent linkages between Indian and Myanmar armed groups.
- Enhance humanitarian aid, health, and educational facilities along the India-Myanmar border.
- Engage Myanmar’s ethnic groups to reduce refugee inflow pressures.
- Collaborate with Myanmar’s neighbours to promote federal democratic reforms in Myanmar.
Long-Term Outlook and Policy Recommendations
- Despite instability, India must prioritize:
- Border security with economic engagement goals.
- Leveraging border haats and controlled trade channels to revive regional growth.
- Sustaining infrastructure projects in Northeast India to reduce external dependency.
- Recalibrate policies to reopen trade routes when stability allows, ensuring Northeast India’s connectivity to Southeast Asia.
