Context:
The 60 GW Medog Hydropower Dam across the Brahmaputra (Yarlung Zangbo) was approved in December 2024 led to rise in geopolitical tensions.
Relevance: GS 3 (Internal Security).
Impacts:
Environmental Risks:
- Blocking the Brahmaputra’s flow will disrupt perennial water availability in India and Bangladesh.
- This could alter monsoon patterns, reduce surface and groundwater levels, and devastate the Himalayan ecosystem.
- Increased likelihood of disasters like Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), exemplified by the Chungthang Dam collapse in Sikkim (2023).
Impact on Communities:
- Agro-pastoral and downstream communities in India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh will lose traditional knowledge systems as river cycles are disrupted.
- Flood risks and water shortages could worsen, threatening livelihoods, biodiversity, and food security.
Strategic and Geopolitical Tensions:
- China views the Yarlung Zangbo as a “rogue river” and seeks to control its flow for strategic purposes.
- India’s counter-projects (e.g., Upper Siang Dam) reflect escalating hydro-hegemony in the region.
- Lack of a bilateral water-sharing treaty or enforcement mechanisms under international conventions intensifies disputes.
Hydropower Race in the Brahmaputra Basin:
China’s Dominance:
- Previous mega-projects like the Three Gorges Dam (Yangtze) and Zangmu Dam (Yarlung Zangbo) demonstrate China’s unilateral approach to hydropower.
India and Bhutan’s Efforts:
- India plans its largest dam at Upper Siang to counter China’s water control.
- Bhutan focuses on small-to-medium hydropower projects, raising concerns in India and Bangladesh.
Absence of Cooperation:
- None of the riparian countries are signatories to the UN Watercourses Convention (2014), making water-sharing rights unenforceable.
- Existing mechanisms like the Expert Level Mechanism (ELM) between China and India remain limited in scope.
What’s at Stake?
Turning the Region into a Risk-Scape:
- If planned dams by China, India, and Bhutan proceed, the Brahmaputra basin could face water scarcity, ecological collapse, and increased vulnerability to natural disasters.
Potential for Water Wars:
- Securitisation of the river system could fuel regional tensions, with lower riparian nations like Bangladesh facing the worst impacts.
Need for a Bioregional Approach:
- Collaborative river basin management and ecological preservation are vital to countering the “dam-for-dam” strategy.
Recommendations:
De-Securitising the Basin:
- Shift focus from hydro-hegemony to cooperative, bioregional frameworks that prioritise ecological sustainability and disaster risk reduction.
Regional Leadership by India:
- India should avoid mimicking China’s unilateralism and champion equitable river governance in the region.
- Engage Bhutan and Bangladesh in multilateral frameworks for sustainable water-sharing.
Strengthen Data Sharing and Monitoring:
- Expand the scope of the India-China ELM to include disaster risk management and ecological preservation.
Global Advocacy for Himalayan Ecology:
- Highlight the Himalayas’ importance in global climate systems and advocate for international commitments to preserve its bioregion.
