Overview:
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is dealing with an increasing challenge of weather forecasting due to climatic changes and the rise of extreme weather events.
- The IMD Vision-2047 document highlights a focus on improving weather resilience and climate change adaptation.
- Events such as heatwaves, thunderstorms, and cold waves are expected to rise by about 80%-88% as per the forecasts.
Relevance : GS 3(Disaster Management )
Evolution of Meteorology in India:
- India’s meteorological history dates back to 1793, with the establishment of one of the world’s oldest observatories in Madras (now Chennai).
- Modernization efforts include the setting up of new meteorological centers in Leh, Shillong, Amravati, Port Blair, and Imphal (2023).
- Despite advancements, challenges in forecasting tropical weather persist due to the complex terrain and regional variations.
Climatic and Forecasting Challenges:
- Extreme Weather Events: Climate change has led to more frequent and unpredictable extreme weather events, including floods, heatwaves, and heavy rainfall.
- Localized and Short-Term Events: Extreme weather events often occur in short time spans or smaller localized areas, making accurate forecasting difficult.
- Regions with Limited Data: Areas such as the hills, remote locations, and regions with difficult terrain experience challenges in collecting weather data. For these, the IMD uses Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and remotely sensed observations.
- Uncertainty in Forecasting: The rise of uncertainty in predicting such weather events poses significant challenges, with varying impacts in different regions.
IMD’s Efforts to Improve Forecasting:
- Increased Accuracy: The IMD has significantly improved forecasting accuracy over the years:
- Compared to 2014, forecast accuracy for severe weather events has improved by 50%.
- Forecasts now provide up to five days of lead time for weather events, compared to one day in 2017.
- The IMD can predict cyclone development up to seven days in advance, compared to 1-3 days in 2014.
- Mission Mausam (150th Anniversary):
- Launched as a part of the sesquicentennial celebration of the IMD, Mission Mausam aims to enhance weather observation and modeling.
- Economic Outlay: The mission is planned with an investment of ₹22,000 crore till 2026, aiming to expand its observational network.
- Panchayat Mausam Sewa and Mausamgram initiatives focus on impact-based forecasting services, providing hydrometeorological and socio-economic data.
Technological Advancements and Innovations:
- Radar Coverage and Crowdsourcing: The IMD is expanding its radar network for better monitoring and nowcasting of weather patterns.
- Weather Model Precision: Efforts are underway to improve the precision of weather models, allowing for better planning and disaster management.
- Crowdsourcing Feedback: Initiatives like crowdsourcing have been introduced to gather real-time feedback on weather events, helping refine forecasts.
Mission Mausam’s Key Objectives:
- Expansion of Observational Network: Under Mission Mausam, the IMD aims to expand its network of meteorological centers, providing comprehensive coverage across land, ocean, and poles.
- Indigenous Decision Support System: A key focus is the integration of hydrometeorological data with socio-economic data, offering better impact-based services for communities.
- Improved Forecasting for Resilience: The goal is to equip administrators and disaster managers with more accurate predictions for proactive response to extreme weather events.
Conclusion:
- The IMD’s Vision-2047 outlines a strategy to adapt to evolving climatic conditions and improve the accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts.
- Through technological advancements and strategic initiatives like Mission Mausam, the IMD aims to enhance weather resilience, help communities better prepare for extreme weather, and combat the impacts of climate change.
