Contents:
- Weighing in on with business as usual with China
- India’s Defence Exports and Humanitarian Law
- The Maldives Model: Implications for India’s South Asia Policy in Sri Lanka
Weighing In On With Business As Usual With China
Context: Recent discussions have centered around India’s potential rethinking of its economic ties with China, particularly in the area of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), despite the unresolved border disputes. As tensions with China persist, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the debate focuses on how India should navigate its strategic security while weighing the importance of economic decoupling and future cooperation with its largest trading partner.
Relevance: General Studies Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Economy and Security)
Mains Question: How should India balance its security concerns and economic relations with China in light of unresolved border disputes? Discuss the implications of economic decoupling.
- India-China Relations Post-Galwan:
- India’s relations with China have been strained since the Galwan clashes in 2020, which resulted in casualties on both sides. This led to growing calls for economic decoupling, especially in the technology and telecommunications sectors, where Chinese companies had a significant presence.
- Despite disengagement in some areas, as noted by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, the border issues in Ladakh remain unresolved. India has emphasized that relations with China cannot be normalized until the status quo along the LAC is restored.
- China’s Economic Demands:
- Recent talks between Indian and Chinese officials indicate that China is pushing for more market access in India, including:
- Level playing field for Chinese companies.
- Resumption of direct flights.
- Facilitation of visas for Chinese personnel.
- Allowing Chinese journalists to operate in India.
- These demands highlight China’s insistence on a return to economic normalcy, even as border issues remain a point of contention.
- Recent talks between Indian and Chinese officials indicate that China is pushing for more market access in India, including:
- India’s Strategic Considerations:
- From a strategic perspective, India has expressed reluctance to resume business as usual without concrete movement on the border issue. The unresolved tensions along the LAC are not just about territory but have broader implications for India’s national security.
- National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval has reiterated that any economic engagement must be secondary to security concerns, urging China to address the root cause of the border militarization.
- Economic Implications of Decoupling:
- India’s imports from China touched $104 billion in 2022, while exports to China were $16 billion, reflecting a huge trade deficit. This imbalance has been a source of frustration for Indian policymakers.
- Economic decoupling would pose challenges for sectors like electronics, solar equipment, and pharmaceuticals, which are heavily dependent on Chinese imports. However, India has already taken steps to diversify supply chains, shifting imports to other Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.
- FDI from China has been restricted, particularly in sensitive sectors such as technology, which is part of India’s broader strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese investments.
- The Future of India-China Economic Engagement:
- India’s economic strategy with China will likely remain cautious. FDI rules might be eased selectively in non-strategic sectors, but the broader emphasis will be on self-reliance and diversification of trade partners.
- Furthermore, India is likely to continue focusing on multilateral frameworks like BRICS and SCO, where it engages with China on issues like climate change and global governance, while keeping a firm stance on bilateral tensions.
Additional Data:
- Trade Deficit: India’s trade deficit with China stood at $64 billion in 2022.
- FDI Restrictions: India has limited Chinese FDI in critical sectors such as telecommunications and technology.
Conclusion:
India’s strategy of balancing its security concerns with economic pragmatism in relation to China is delicate. While economic integration with China has benefits, border security and national sovereignty remain paramount. Moving forward, India will likely pursue a selective engagement strategy with China, fostering economic ties only in non-sensitive sectors while continuing to decouple strategically in areas critical to national security.
India’s Defence Exports and Humanitarian Law
Context: The Supreme Court of India recently dismissed a PIL requesting the government to halt defence exports to Israel, citing possible violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) in Gaza. While the court’s decision was based on the foreign policy domain, it raised pertinent questions about India’s position as an emerging defence exporter and the need to align its policies with international legal frameworks.
Relevance: General Studies Paper II (International Relations)
Mains Question: Discuss India’s legal framework regarding defence exports. How can India align its defence export policies with International Humanitarian Law (IHL) to strengthen its global standing?
- India’s Defence Export Aspirations:
- India has positioned itself as a growing defence exporter with ambitions to expand its market globally. Defence equipment exports to countries like Israel, which are involved in regional conflicts, have raised ethical concerns about compliance with international humanitarian law (IHL).
- Countries like the Netherlands and UK have blocked exports of military equipment to conflict zones like Gaza, citing risks of violating IHL. The European Union (EU) has regulations that prohibit defence exports to countries if there’s evidence the weapons might be used to violate human rights.
- India’s Domestic Legal Framework:
- India’s Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992 (FTA) and the Weapons of Mass Destruction and their Delivery Systems (Prohibition of Unlawful Activities) Act, 2005 empower the Indian government to regulate the export of designated goods, including defence equipment.
- However, Indian law does not explicitly assess IHL compliance of countries receiving Indian defence exports. In contrast to EU or UK laws, India’s regulations do not impose an obligation on the government to ensure that defence exports are not used to commit violations of IHL.
- Legal Gaps and the Need for Reform:
- India’s current legislation lacks a legal requirement to assess the compliance of importing countries with IHL. The absence of such provisions creates a legal gap, as seen in the Supreme Court’s dismissal of the PIL concerning defence exports to Israel.
- To align with international standards, India needs to amend its laws to include IHL compliance as a criterion for defence exports. This would enhance India’s credibility as a responsible arms exporter and ensure that Indian-made weapons are not used in violation of humanitarian laws.
- International Law and the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT):
- The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which regulates the international trade in conventional arms, prohibits the export of weapons if there is knowledge that they will be used for violations of IHL.
- India is not a signatory to the ATT, but many provisions of the treaty reflect customary international law, which is binding on all states, including India. Under Geneva Conventions, India has an obligation not to supply weapons if there is a significant risk they would be used to violate humanitarian law.
- Strengthening India’s Defence Export Policies:
- Amending Indian laws to incorporate IHL compliance for defence exports would be a significant step towards responsible arms trade. This can be achieved by revising the WMDA and FTA acts to include provisions that assess the IHL track record of the importing country.
- By doing so, India will project itself as a credible global player in defence exports, ensuring that its military equipment is not used in conflicts that violate humanitarian norms.
Additional Data:
- Defence Exports: India’s defence exports to Israel and other conflict regions have raised concerns about compliance with international law.
- International Obligations: India is bound by the Geneva Conventions to avoid exporting weapons that could be used in violations of IHL.
Conclusion:
India’s rise as a defence exporter necessitates a stronger alignment with international humanitarian law (IHL). Amending domestic laws to assess IHL compliance of countries receiving Indian defence equipment will not only strengthen India’s global standing but also ensure that its exports do not contribute to human rights violations.
The Maldives Model: Implications for India’s South Asia Policy in Sri Lanka
Context: The recent election results in Sri Lanka serve as a crucial moment for India’s Neighbourhood First Policy. With the region experiencing political instability, particularly in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, India needs to revise its South Asia policy to address emerging geopolitical shifts. The Maldives model, which has guided India’s engagement in the Maldives, offers valuable lessons that can be adapted to Sri Lanka‘s current political scenario.
Relevance: General Studies (GS) Paper II (International Relations)
Mains Question: Discuss the implications of the recent political shifts in Sri Lanka for India’s foreign policy. How can India adapt its “Maldives model” to address its evolving relations with Sri Lanka?
- Political Turmoil in Sri Lanka:
- The recent presidential elections in Sri Lanka saw the victory of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, marking a shift away from the pro-Indian policies of the previous government. The People’s Front Party (NPP), which led this victory, has strong nationalistic tendencies, often harboring anti-India sentiments.
- Dissanayake has expressed intentions to renegotiate economic terms with India, especially concerning investment projects like the solar power plant and container port in Colombo. This presents a challenge for India’s economic and strategic interests in the island nation.
- The Maldives Model:
- The Maldives model refers to India’s proactive engagement in domestic politics and economic development in the Maldives, underpinned by economic packages and diplomatic support. India helped stabilize the Maldives by offering financial aid and strategic guidance, allowing it to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
- A similar approach could be adopted in Sri Lanka, where India needs to maintain its strategic foothold while navigating the rising tide of anti-India nationalism. India should extend economic assistance, while remaining open to revising investment agreements in a way that protects its strategic interests.
- South Asian Geopolitics and India’s Challenges:
- Bangladesh is undergoing significant political shifts with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina facing increasing opposition. If the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), with its anti-India stance, gains power, India could face similar challenges as in Sri Lanka.
- Pakistan continues to pose cross-border security threats and has resumed its policy of escalating tensions with India. At the same time, there is instability in the North-East of India, with insurgency concerns rising in Manipur and the Northeast frontier.
- Against this backdrop, maintaining stable ties with Sri Lanka becomes even more critical for India’s regional security.
- India’s Strategic Options in Sri Lanka:
- Diplomatic Engagement: India must engage with the new government of Dissanayake, emphasizing the importance of bilateral cooperation while diplomatically navigating the nationalist rhetoric.
- Economic Leverage: India has significant economic investments in Sri Lanka, which provides leverage to negotiate favorable terms. By offering a financial package similar to the Maldives model, India could help stabilize Sri Lanka’s economy, reducing its reliance on Chinese investments.
- Security Cooperation: Given the strategic maritime position of Sri Lanka, India should continue strengthening naval cooperation, ensuring that the island nation remains a part of India’s security architecture in the Indian Ocean Region.
- Broader Implications for South Asia Policy:
- The political developments in Sri Lanka, along with turbulence in other neighboring countries, signal the need for a revised South Asia policy that accounts for the growing influence of nationalistic movements. India must craft a nuanced foreign policy that balances strategic interests with the internal politics of neighboring countries.
- Adopting the Maldives model in Sri Lanka could serve as a template for similar engagements in Bangladesh and Nepal, where political uncertainty could threaten India’s regional interests.
Additional Data:
- Indian Investment in Sri Lanka: India has invested in several major projects, including the Colombo port and solar power projects, which are now under scrutiny by the new Sri Lankan government.
- Economic Interdependence: Sri Lanka is reliant on Indian imports and investments, providing India with leverage in ongoing negotiations.
Conclusion:
India’s engagement with Sri Lanka needs to be recalibrated to address the new political realities. Drawing on the successful Maldives model, India can engage with the Dissanayake government through economic support and strategic cooperation. By adapting its South Asia policy to the emerging political landscape, India can ensure that its geopolitical interests remain secure.
