Content:
- The Teesta dam and the long shadow of climate change
- Dealing with China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains
- Peace imperatives
The Teesta dam and the long shadow of climate change
Background: Teesta-3 Dam and GLOF Impact
- Event: On October 4, 2023, a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from the South Lhonak lake destroyed the Teesta-3 hydroelectric dam in Sikkim.
- Damage:
- Over 100 people died; 80,000 affected across four districts.
- The dam’s debris acted as a battering ram, intensifying downstream destruction.
- Triggered landslides 30-40 km downstream.
- Cause: Moraine slope failure led to rockfall into the lake, causing a strong wave that breached the outlet, releasing ~50 billion liters of water.
Relevance : GS (Disaster Management , Climate Change)
Practice Question : The Teesta-3 dam’s destruction in 2023 highlights the challenges of climate change-induced disasters. Critically examine the risks associated with rebuilding the dam and suggest alternative approaches to managing hydropower projects in ecologically fragile regions. (250 words)
Climate Change as a Risk Multiplier
- Glacial Melt Acceleration:
- Rising temperatures & black carbon (soot) deposition accelerate glacier melting.
- Smaller glaciers melt faster due to inverse volume-melting rate relationship.
- Increasing Glacial Lakes & Flood Risks:
- 2011-2024: Number of Himalayan glacial lakes increased by 10.8%.
- Their combined surface area expanded by 33.7%.
- South Lhonak lake itself expanded from 167 hectares (2023) due to glacial retreat.
- Geological Instability:
- Glacial retreat weakens natural formations → increases landslide risks.
- New transient landscape features emerge → difficult to predict flood dynamics.
Concerns Over Rebuilding Teesta-3 Dam
- Expert Panel’s Justification:
- Commercial viability & largely intact equipment post-GLOF.
- New design includes:
- Concrete-only construction (previously concrete + rocks).
- Larger spillway (3x capacity).
- Early-warning system.
- Based on worst-case scenario rainfall modeling (IMD projection for next 100 years).
- Key Issues:
- Rainfall-Centric Model Insufficient:
- Experts doubt 2023 GLOF was caused by heavy rain (local stations recorded moderate rainfall).
- Existing GLOF models fail to capture:
- Sediment transport & erosion.
- Riverbank collapses & landslides.
- Bed elevation changes altering water levels.
- Rainfall-Centric Model Insufficient:
- Climate Change = UnpredictabilityA stronger or different flood type could make Teesta-3 2.0 even more destructive.Unpredictable landslides + sediment deposition → new flood pathways.
- Social & Economic Costs Ignored:Loss of life, property, and livelihood far outweigh commercial benefits.Local populations need improved social security & disaster preparedness.
Broader Perspective: Sustainable Disaster Management
- Lessons from Global Disaster Research:
- Engineering solutions have limitations in the face of climate risks.
- Professor Brian Stone Jr.: “We cannot engineer our way out of climate change; retreat is inevitable.”
- The cost of climate adaptation must be internalized (e.g., hydroelectric tariffs covering risk mitigation).
- Alternative Framework for Decision-Making:
- Risk determination matrix: Identify ‘unacceptable risk’ thresholds.
- Prioritize human safety over commercial gains.
- Integrated environmental and economic costing to assess project feasibility.
Dealing with China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains
Understanding the Issue
- China has imposed travel restrictions on its citizens working in Foxconn’s India facilities and recalled existing engineers and technicians.
- It has also restricted exports of specialized manufacturing equipment, which is critical for India’s electronics sector.
- The move impacts Apple-Foxconn’s operations in India and hinders India’s goal of becoming a global manufacturing hub.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(SupplyChain)
Practice Question: China’s weaponisation of e-supply chains poses a significant challenge to India’s manufacturing ambitions. Analyze the issue and suggest measures to mitigate its impact. (250 words)
Strategic Intent Behind China’s Actions
- Supply Chain Domination: China holds a strategic position in the global electronics supply chain, particularly in advanced machinery and trained workforce.
- Knowledge Retention: By curbing the presence of Chinese technicians in India, China prevents tacit knowledge transfer.
- Geopolitical Leverage: The disruption puts China in a stronger negotiating position against India.
- Reminder to Global Corporations: It signals that China remains indispensable in the electronics manufacturing ecosystem.
India’s Growing Electronics Sector & China’s Countermoves
- India has been a key player in the China Plus One strategy, attracting companies looking to diversify beyond China.
- The Indian government has actively promoted Apple-Foxconn investments, leading to local iPhone assembly in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
- Apple’s contract manufacturers in India assembled $14 billion worth of iPhones (FY 2024), with further expansion planned.
- The Indian government awarded Foxconn Chairman Young Liu the Padma Bhushan, showing the strategic importance of Apple-Foxconn ties.
The Role of ‘Make in India’ and PLI Scheme
- Electronics manufacturing is a core pillar of Make in India.
- The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, launched in 2020, has received increasing government support:
- ₹8,885 crore ($1.02 billion) allocated in the 2025 Union Budget.
- ₹6,600 crore ($0.76 billion) already disbursed to Apple’s contract manufacturers.
- The 2025 Budget also removed import duties on mobile phone components, showing India’s commitment to electronics self-sufficiency.
Economic Dependence and Geopolitical Tensions
- India remains dependent on China for components and high-tech machinery, despite military tensions and trade disputes.
- The timing of China’s actions, soon after the October 2024 India-China patrolling agreement in Ladakh, suggests economic leverage remains key in their bilateral relations.
Steps India Must Take for Future-Proofing
- Negotiation & Diplomatic Strategy:
- India should involve Apple and Foxconn to pressurize China to relax restrictions.
- Engage with international forums to highlight supply chain coercion.
- Building Indigenous Capabilities:
- Expand local production of specialized components (e.g., semiconductor chips, precision machinery).
- Strengthen ancillary industries to reduce reliance on imports.
- Human Resource & Skill Development:
- Develop specialized training programs to replace lost expertise from Chinese technicians.
- Encourage knowledge transfer within India’s industrial ecosystem.
- Encouraging Private Investment & R&D:
- Increase financial incentives for Indian contract manufacturers to develop domestic capabilities.
- Support technology clusters for knowledge-sharing and innovation.
Conclusion
- India’s rapid expansion in electronics manufacturing has put it at odds with China, leading to supply chain disruptions.
- While short-term solutions may involve negotiations, long-term self-reliance in technology, skilled labor, and manufacturing infrastructure is crucial.
- New Delhi must accelerate its future-proofing efforts to counter economic coercion and solidify its role as a global manufacturing hub.
Peace Imperatives
Context :
- Persistent ethnic strife since May 2023 had led to a law-and-order crisis, with the Union Home Ministry already in control.
- The imposition of President’s Rule provides an opportunity to stabilize governance and address key challenges.
Relevance:GS 2 (Governance, Indian Polity)
Practice Question :Critically analyze the impact of President’s Rule in Manipur on conflict resolution and governance. What measures should the Union government take to ensure long-term peace in the region? (250 words)
Challenges Under President’s Rule
a) Law and Order Breakdown
- Despite central forces’ deployment, violence continues between Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities.
- Armed civilian groups, known as “village volunteers,” have escalated conflict by looting arms from police stations.
- Insurgents from both within Manipur and Myanmar’s civil war have exacerbated the situation.
b) Humanitarian Crisis
- Over 60,000 people remain displaced, suffering from trauma, loss of livelihood, and inadequate relief measures.
- Restoration of housing, infrastructure, and economic stability is critical.
- Long-term reconciliation is needed to prevent further ethnic divisions.
c) Political and Administrative Paralysis
- The Manipur legislature failed to function due to deep ethnic divisions.
- Biases within the previous government fueled distrust, particularly regarding the stigmatization of the Kuki-Zo community.
- President’s Rule allows for a neutral administration to rebuild trust and facilitate negotiations.
Opportunities Under President’s Rule
a) Conflict Resolution and Reconciliation
- The central government can initiate direct talks between Meitei and Kuki-Zo representatives who seek peace.
- Political parties and civil society groups must be engaged to create a sustainable peace framework.
b) Disarmament and Demilitarization
- A coordinated effort between security forces, intelligence agencies, and local leaders is needed to retrieve looted arms.
- Incentives for voluntary surrender of weapons can be coupled with strict enforcement measures.
- Insurgency containment strategies must address external influences, including Myanmar-based militant activities.
c) Restoring Civil Administration
- Bureaucratic neutrality under central rule can help address governance gaps.
- Immediate rehabilitation of displaced persons through housing, economic aid, and trauma counseling is essential.
- Restoring local governance mechanisms at the village and district levels can ensure lasting stability.
d) Creating Preconditions for Elections
- Free and fair elections require a violence-free environment and restoration of democratic trust.
- Political actors from both communities should be given space for dialogue before electoral processes resume.
- Reforms in law enforcement and judiciary can ensure accountability for past violence and prevent future outbreaks.
The Way Forward
- Short-Term: Focus on security measures, humanitarian aid, and confidence-building among communities.
- Medium-Term: Institutionalize conflict resolution mechanisms and strengthen civil administration.
- Long-Term: Establish electoral processes and ensure inclusive governance to prevent further ethnic polarization.
