Content:
1. Trump’s return and the South Asia outlook
2. Welcome spotlight
Trump’s Return and the South Asia outlook
Context: Donald Trump’s potential return could reshape South Asia’s geopolitics by reducing focus on democracy and emphasizing strategic and defense cooperation with India, impacting the region’s balance between U.S. and China.
Relevance: GS 2(International Relations)
Practice Question: Discuss the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency on South Asia, with a focus on U.S.-India ties and regional geopolitics.(250 Words)
Continuity in U.S.-India Ties
- Upward Trajectory: India-U.S. relations have grown since 2000, with the U.S. recognizing India as a net-security provider in 2009.
Strategic Cooperation:
- Strengthened under the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China.
- Joint efforts in Nepal (MCC projects) and Sri Lanka (economic crisis resolution).
- Shared Vision: Both nations align on regional leadership to uphold a values-based order against China.
Challenges in the Relationship
Divergences Under Biden:
- Selective scrutiny of democracy and human rights led to U.S. pressure on Bangladesh (Sheikh Hasina) and Myanmar, pushing them closer to China.
- Sanctions on Indian firms collaborating with Russia disrupted Indian projects in Sri Lanka.
- India’s Approach: Pragmatic engagement with neighboring regimes sometimes conflicted with U.S. policies.
Trump’s Potential Impact on U.S.-India Ties
Reduced Irritants:
- Likely focus on burden sharing, reciprocity, and countering China with less emphasis on democracy and human rights.
- Encouragement for India to lead regionally, with U.S. playing a supportive role.
Policy Priorities:
- Capacity building, development assistance, and defense cooperation with South Asian countries to continue.
- Lesser focus on nation-building benefits countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Afghanistan.
Implications for South Asia
China’s Role:
- Trump’s confrontational approach toward China will put pressure on South Asian countries to align with U.S. interests.
- Reduced tolerance for countries leveraging great power competition.
- Challenges for Bangladesh: Likely reduced U.S. assistance during its political transition under a new regime.
Benefits for Others:
- Economic support for Sri Lanka amid its recovery efforts.
- Possible engagement with Myanmar and the Taliban, though scope remains unclear.
Economic and Regional Dynamics
Impact on South Asian Economies:
- Potential easing of food and fuel inflation if Trump resolves global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and West Asian crises.
- Reciprocity Demands: South Asian nations may face increased U.S. pressure to reciprocate on investments, defense cooperation, and agreements.
Opportunities and Challenges
For India:
- Likely enhanced collaboration to counter China.
- Potential bridging of divergences seen under the Biden administration.
For the Region:
- Balancing relations with China and India under Trump’s leadership remains a challenge.
- Structural shifts in global politics under “Trump 2.0” will shape South Asia’s future.
Welcome Spotlight
Background:
- The Supreme Court is monitoring the aftermath of ethnic violence in Manipur that erupted a year and a half ago.
- Focus areas include destruction of property, sexual violence, and ongoing ethnic hostilities.
Relevance : GS 2 ( Judiciary) ,GS 3( Internal Security )
Practice Question: Discuss the judiciary’s role in addressing the Manipur violence and suggest steps for sustainable resolution of ethnic conflicts in India.(250 words)
Background :
- Ethnic Composition: Manipur has three major groups:
- Meiteis: Form about 53% of the population, mostly in the Imphal Valley.
- Nagas and Kukis:Live in the hill districts, forming the tribal population.
Cause of Ethnic Tensions:
- Demand by Meiteis for Scheduled Tribe (ST) status led to fears of reduced opportunities and land rights among hill tribes.
- Historical distrust between Meiteis and Kuki-Zomi tribes over resource allocation, land ownership, and political representation.
Immediate Trigger (May 2023):
- A tribal solidarity march opposing Meitei ST demand turned violent.
- Widespread ethnic clashes led to deaths, destruction of property, and displacement of thousands.
Key Issues in the Violence:
- Sexual Violence: Shocking incidents of sexual violence were reported, including parading of women.
- Destruction: Targeted attacks on homes, religious places, and institutions, further dividing communities.
- Displacement: Over 221 killed and over 60,000 people displaced, with many seeking refuge in relief camps.
- Armed Groups: Rise of non-state actors with looted sophisticated weapons from police armories
Judiciary’s Role:
- The Court extended the tenure of the Justice Gita Mittal-led Committee to oversee investigations, humanitarian relief, and accountability.
- The judiciary stepped in due to the perceived ineffectiveness governments in addressing the crisis.
Key Concerns:
- Rise of Non-State Actors: Armed groups, some equipped with looted state weapons, exert influence and escalate violence.
- Ethnic Divide: Political representatives remain divided along ethnic lines, complicating the resolution process.
Government’s Position:
- The government claims efforts to restore normalcy but progress remains insufficient.
Judiciary’s Observations:
- The Court has emphasized the need for transparency and accountability.
- It highlights that conflict resolution requires trust-building mechanisms like “truth and reconciliation.”
Steps Needed:
- Restoration of Rule of Law: Address the rise of non-state actors and retrieve looted arms.
- Political Bridging: Encourage dialogue and convergence between divided ethnic groups.
- Transparency: Publicize findings of the Justice Mittal Committee to build trust.
- Adopt Global Practices: Implement conflict resolution mechanisms such as “truth and reconciliation” to rebuild fractured relationships.
