Editorials/Opinions Analysis For UPSC 03 January 2025

Content:

1. Remembering the Impactful Legacy of Wise Leadership
2. Reflections as the world grows more ‘polarised’

Remembering the Impactful Legacy of Wise Leadership

Context: The period 2004-14 under Manmohan Singh’s leadership saw a phase of unprecedented economic growth and poverty reduction, but the gains have been reversed post-2015 due to several factors.

Relevance: GS 2(Governance), GS 4( Leadership )

Practice Question: Discuss the impact of macroeconomic policies implemented during 2004-14 on India’s economic structure. (250 words)

Contributions of Manmohan Singh’s Leadership (2004-14)

Appropriate Macroeconomic Policies:

• Savings and Investment:
  • Savings rate rose significantly, reaching 23% of GDP by 2003-04.
  • Investment to GDP rate increased from 24% to 38% within six years (2004-10).
  • Resulted in unprecedented GDP growth of 8.5% per annum (2004-09).
• Stable Export Growth:
  • Exports grew by 15-18% annually due to stable real effective exchange rates.

Broad-Based Growth:

• Growth encompassed both organised and unorganised sectors.
• Aggregate demand remained strong as all growth engines fired: public and private investment, consumption, exports, and government spending.

Non-Farm Job Creation:

• Historic Shift: Absolute number of agricultural workers fell for the first time in independent India.
• Construction Jobs: Increased from 26 million (2004) to 51 million (2012).
• Manufacturing Jobs: Grew by 8 million, particularly in labour-intensive sectors.
• Modern Services: Expansion in sectors like telecom, banking, insurance, and health.

Rising Real Wages:

• Real wages rose consistently until 2015.
• Wage growth was observed across casual and regular/salaried work.

Poverty Reduction:

• For the first time, the absolute number of poor declined.
• 138 million people rose above the poverty line between 2004-05 and 2011-12.

Scenario Post-2015

Decline in GDP Growth:

• Average growth rate fell to 5.8% per annum (2015-24).
• Key shocks: Demonetisation, poorly implemented GST, and a strict COVID-19 lockdown.

Unemployment Surge:

• Unemployment rate jumped to a 45-year high of 6.1% (2017-18).
• Number of jobless individuals tripled from 1 crore (2011-12) to 3 crore (2017-18).
• Youth unemployment doubled from 6% (2011-12) to 11% (2022-23).
• Graduate and postgraduate unemployment stood at 33%.

Reversal of Structural Change:

• Agricultural workforce saw a reversal in decline:
  • 6.7 crore workers left agriculture between 2004-19.
  • Reversed by 8 crore workers returning to agriculture (2020-24).
• Manufacturing sector stagnated:
  • Share of manufacturing fell from 17% to 13% of GVA.
  • Labour-intensive industries suffered job losses.

Declining Wage Growth:

• Share of regular salaried workers fell from 23.8% (2019) to 20.9%.
• Rise in unpaid family workers from 6.2 crore (2017) to 10.4 crore (2023).

Decline in Exports:

• Merchandise exports grew fourfold from $77 billion (2004) to $323 billion (2014).
• Post-2014, export growth slowed to 1.5 times, reaching $454 billion by 2022.

Challenges to India’s Future Growth Prospects

Rising Inequality:

• Growing disparity in income and wealth.
• Constrained aggregate demand impacting economic recovery.

Demographic Dividend at Risk:

• Stagnant job growth and policy-induced shocks threaten to nullify the potential benefits of India’s demographic dividend.

Risk of Economic Stagnation:

• Reversal of earlier progress raises concerns about achieving the goal of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2040.
• Emphasis needed on reviving labour-intensive industries to create sustainable jobs.

Conclusion:

The period of 2004-14 under Manmohan Singh’s leadership saw unprecedented economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. However, post-2015 policy shocks have reversed these gains, putting India’s future growth prospects at risk. It is essential to focus on sustainable policies to revive structural change and harness India’s demographic dividend effectively.

Reflections as the world grows more ‘polarised’

Context: The growing political, cultural, and social divides globally, driven by historical factors, technological advancements, and media narratives, are intensifying polarisation in modern societies.

Relevance : GS 2 ( Polity & Governance)

Practice Question : Polarisation is a growing challenge to democratic governance and social cohesion worldwide. Critically examine the causes, impact, and possible measures to address rising polarisation.( 250 words)

Understanding Polarisation

• Definition: Polarisation refers to a sharp division into two distinct and opposing groups.
• Key Trend: The term has gained global prominence due to increasing political, cultural, and societal divides.
• Significance: Merriam-Webster named “polarization” as the 2024 word of the year, indicating its growing relevance.

Polarisation in the U.S. Political Context

• 2016 U.S. Election: Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 highlighted deep societal divisions.
• 2024 U.S. Election:
  • Trump won a second term, intensifying polarisation.
  • Both candidates, Trump and Harris, were perceived as existential threats by the opposition.
  • New terms like “far left,” “far right,” and “MAGA” gained traction.

• Public Perception:
  • AP VoteCast Poll (2024):
    • 8/10 Harris supporters felt Trump’s views were radical.
    • 7/10 Trump supporters felt the same about Harris.

Polarisation Beyond Politics

• Cultural Polarisation:
  • Pop culture conflicts like Taylor Swift’s private jet use and Drake-Kendrick Lamar feud have become polarising issues.

• Workplace Impact:
  • Polarisation is affecting workplaces, creating challenges in team cohesion.

Global Trends in Polarisation

• Europe:
  • Centrist leaders like Emmanuel Macron (France) and Olaf Scholz (Germany) are witnessing societal shifts toward polar extremes.

• General Trend: The “us vs. them” mentality is becoming pervasive across societies, affecting political discourse, workplaces, and personal lives.

Historical Roots of Polarisation

• Not a Recent Phenomenon:
  • Polarisation didn’t start with Trump; its roots go back several decades.

• Cultural Changes:
  • 1950s-60s civil rights movements laid the foundation for current culture wars.
  • Social and economic transformations, especially post-1970s, increased divides.
  • Income inequality has worsened polarisation since the 1970s.

Technological Factors in Modern Polarisation

• Social Media’s Role:
  • Social media acts as a prism, refracting opinions and creating echo chambers.
  • Chris Bail’s Research (2021):
    • Explores how political tribalism is reinforced by social media networks.
    • Asks whether social media shapes views or whether views shape networks.

• AI Influence:
  • AI further amplifies polarisation by curating content that reinforces existing beliefs.
  • Result: The “us vs. them” divide deepens with the rise of AI-driven algorithms.

Consequences of Polarisation

• Political Impact:
  • Heightened divisions lead to extreme partisanship, reducing scope for dialogue.
• Cultural Consequences:
  • Culture wars have intensified, affecting societal harmony.
• Workplace Dynamics:
  • Increased challenges in managing diverse views and fostering inclusivity.
• Global Governance:
  • Polarisation challenges centrist governance models worldwide.

Takeaways from the Article

• Word of the Year (2024):
  • “Polarization” encapsulates the defining trend of our times.
• Historical Context:
  • Polarisation is rooted in historical social and economic changes.
• Modern Drivers:
  • Social media and AI significantly contribute to deepening divides.
• Global Implications:
  • The phenomenon is not limited to the U.S.; it has global political and cultural ramifications.