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Introduction

India’s commercial ties with Israel and Iran have evolved significantly over the years, reflecting broader geopolitical dynamics and regional tensions. Understanding these relationships and their implications is crucial for assessing India’s strategic trade interests.

Body

India-Israel Diplomatic and Trade Relations

  • India established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992.
  • Trade between the two countries has grown significantly from approximately $200 million in 1992 to $10.7 billion (excluding defense) in the fiscal year 2022-23.
  • Example: Major traded goods include diamonds, agricultural products, and technology.

India-Iran Trade Relations

  • Iran was India’s 59th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade amounting to $2.33 billion.
  • Example: India imports oil, fertilizers, and chemicals from Iran.

Impact of Middle East Tensions on Trade

  • According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), petrol prices in India are unlikely to rise significantly due to ongoing Middle East tensions.
  • Tensions in the Red Sea, a crucial commercial route, may impact global trade as this route accounts for around 12% of total world trade.
  • Example: Disruptions in the Red Sea affect shipping routes, potentially increasing costs.

Yemeni Militants and Regional Conflicts

  • Since November 2023, Yemeni Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea, claiming it is a response to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
  • Israel accuses Iran of supporting the Houthis, further complicating regional stability.
  • Example: Such conflicts can disrupt maritime routes and delay shipments.

India’s Commercial Challenges Amid Regional Conflicts

  • The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel may worsen shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, complicating India’s trade logistics.
  • Despite these challenges, the impact on Indian petrol prices is expected to be minimal due to the availability of alternative oil sources.
  • Example: Initiatives like the Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) may face delays due to the instability.

Global Oil Production and Trade Routes

  • Major oil producers such as the United States, Russia, and North Sea firms are outside the conflict zones, ensuring stable crude oil and gas output.
  • However, longer trade routes via the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea disruptions may increase oil and petrol costs.
  • Example: India’s government may mitigate consumer impact by adjusting taxes.

Conclusion

  • India’s trade relations with Israel and Iran are integral to its economic strategy, but regional tensions pose significant challenges. While
  • India’s diplomatic and economic resilience helps navigate these complexities, continuous monitoring and strategic adjustments are essential to safeguard its commercial interests.
Legacy Editor Changed status to publish August 8, 2024