Content:
- Section 69 of the BNS is redundant
- IMF’s lower growth projection for India for 2025-26 fiscal year
- Parliament is supreme, Constitution does not visualise any authority above it: Dhankhar
- IMF cuts global growth over Trump tariffs, policy uncertainty
- AI can supercharge forecasting if it can weather some challenges
Section 69 of the BNS is redundant
Context and Legislative Background
- Section 69 Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita introduces a new standalone offence for sexual intercourse on the false promise of marriage, with lesser punishment than rape.
- Such a provision did not exist in the Indian Penal Code (IPC), though similar cases were tried under Section 375 IPC (now Section 63 BNS).
Relevance : GS 2(Judiciary , Social Justice)
Supreme Court’s Stand and Judicial Interpretation
Judicial filters already exist to prevent misuse of rape laws in cases of consensual sex later termed as rape:
- Intention Test:In Anurag Soni v. State of Chhattisgarh (2019): Unless the man never intended to marry from the start, it does not amount to rape.Nature of Relationship:In Rajnish Singh @ Soni v. State of U.P. (2025): A 15-year consensual relationship, later followed by betrayal, does not qualify as rape under false promise of marriage.Marital Status and Consent:In Abhishek Arjariya v. State of M.P. (2025): If the prosecutrix was already married, her claim of consent under misconception is invalid.
Critique of Section 69 BNS
- Section 69 Text: Targets sexual intercourse through “deceitful means” or “false promise to marry”.
- Includes “false promise of employment, promotion, or suppression of identity” in its explanation.
Redundancy and Legal Overlap
- Section 28 BNS: Defines consent, vitiated by “misconception of fact” — already covers false promise of marriage.
- Thus, rape under Section 63 BNS can already encompass sex under false promise of marriage.
- So, Section 69 duplicates existing provisions under a milder punishment — undermining the seriousness of the offence.
Constitutional and Doctrinal Issues
- No exception carved out in Section 63 for cases under Section 69 → raises constitutional conflict.
- No non-obstante clause in Section 69 → makes it susceptible to being struck down under Article 14 (equality before law).
- Introduces confusion in legal interpretation and may allow legal escape routes for genuine offenders.
Administrative Implications
- Courts already quashing false FIRs based on long-standing precedents.
- Police advised to conduct preliminary inquiries before filing charge-sheets.
- Helps in avoiding misuse of law, protects innocent men, and saves judicial resources.
Conclusion
- No change in core definitions of rape or consent in BNS.
- Section 69 BNS, being legally unnecessary and potentially unconstitutional, appears redundant and unsustainable.
IMF’s lower growth projection for India for 2025-26 fiscal year
Context : IMF’s Growth Projection
- India’s GDP growth for FY 2025–26 is projected at 6.2% by the IMF.
- This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the earlier estimate of 6.5%.
- The global growth forecast is also revised downward to 2.8%, a cut of 0.5 percentage points.
Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)
Stated Reasons for Revision
- Escalated global trade tensions have impacted investor confidence and export dynamics.
- Worsening global uncertainty, including geopolitical risks and financial market volatility.
- Tighter monetary conditions in advanced economies could be curbing capital flows and investment.
Implications for India
- Export sector vulnerability: India’s integration with global supply chains may suffer.
- Private investment slowdown: Uncertainty may delay new investments or expansion plans.
- Impact on job creation: Slower growth could restrict employment generation, especially in informal sectors.
Relative Positives
- Despite the downgrade, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies.
- Domestic demand and infrastructure push may partially offset external headwinds.
- Potential for policy response via fiscal support or targeted reforms if slowdown deepens.
Broader Global Context
- Similar downgrades for several emerging and developing economies.
- Global trade fragmentation and protectionist measures gaining ground.
- Need for multilateral cooperation to stabilize trade, finance, and supply chains.
Parliament is supreme, Constitution does not visualise any authority above it: Dhankhar
Context:
- Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar reaffirmed that the Constitution does not visualise any authority above Parliament.
- He was responding to criticisms regarding his remarks on a recent Supreme Court ruling.
Relevance : GS 2(Polity , Constitution)
Context of the Controversy
- The Supreme Court judgment (April 8, 2025) directed:
- The President must act within 3 months on Bills passed by State Assemblies and referred by Governors.
- Governors cannot withhold assent to Bills indefinitely.
- Dhankhar viewed this as judicial overreach and incursion into the Executive’s domain.
Key Arguments by Dhankhar
- Parliament is the supreme institution under the Constitution.
- No authority, including the Judiciary, is visualised as being above Parliament.
- Constitutional functionaries are not ornamental; their roles are substantive and rooted in public interest.
Interpretational Clash
- Supreme Court: Reinforces checks and balances, especially in ensuring executive accountability and proper assent procedures.
- Vice-President: Emphasizes Parliamentary sovereignty and primacy of elected representatives in a democracy.
Constitutional & Political Implications
- Reflects a tug-of-war between Judiciary and Legislature over boundaries of power.
- Raises concerns about separation of powers, federalism, and institutional respect.
- Could fuel debates on judicial activism vs. parliamentary supremacy.
Symbolic Language
- Dhankhar likened every citizen to an “atom in democracy”, where elections reflect atomic power — underscoring democratic legitimacy of Parliament.
IMF cuts global growth over Trump tariffs, policy uncertainty
Context:
- IMF has cut global growth projections in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
- Triggered by:
- U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 import tariff policy.
- Surging policy uncertainty worldwide.
Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)
Global Growth Projections
- 2025: Global output projected at 2.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from January 2025 forecast.
- 2026: Forecast at 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from earlier.
- Marked as a “critical juncture” for the global economy.
Impact on India
- 2025–26 fiscal growth forecast at 6.2%:
- 0.3% lower than January estimate.
- Supported by rural private consumption, despite external challenges.
- 2026–27 forecast: 6.3%.
- Inflation estimates for India:
- 4.2% (FY25–26), 4.1% (FY26–27).
Structural Global Shifts
- IMF Chief Economist: “We are entering a new era.”
- Global economic system of last 80 years is being reset.
- U.S. effective tariff rates now at 100-year highs.
- Tariff hikes + policy unpredictability are shaping the outlook.
Risk Assessment
- Risk of a global downturn has nearly doubled:
- From 17% to 30%.
- IMF does not forecast a full-blown recession but notes elevated risk.
- Growth reductions expected across all regions in 2025–26.
Inflationary Pressures
- Disinflation process stalled due to:
- Trade disruptions.
- Uncertainty over global supply chains and investment decisions.
- Global inflation revised up by 0.1%.
Conclusion
- The IMF signals economic fragbility, warning that trade wars and unpredictability could derail recovery.
- India remains relatively resilient, but exposed to external shocks due to its trade linkages.
AI can supercharge forecasting if it can weather some challenges
Core Idea
- AI and ML are increasingly being explored to improve weather forecasting in India, especially for extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and torrential rainfall.
- Traditional models rely on physics equations; AI/ML models start with data and learn patterns without explicit programming.
- Two major challenges: data availability and shortage of interdisciplinary human resources.
Relevance : GS 3(Technology and Disaster Management)
How AI/ML Differs from Traditional Weather Models
- Traditional Models: Use physical laws (fluid dynamics, thermodynamics); require supercomputers.
- AI/ML Models: Learn relationships directly from large datasets; can uncover hidden links and non-linear patterns.
Recent Indian Efforts
- ‘Mission Mausam’ (Sep 2024): ₹2,000 crore allocation to improve AI-based forecasting tools.
- AI/ML Centre (Ministry of Earth Sciences): Focus on short-range rainfall forecasting, urban weather datasets, and nowcasting using Doppler radar data.
- Research Initiatives: IIT-Delhi and IIIT-Delhi ML model predicted monsoon rainfall with 61.9% success rate (2002–2022), better than traditional models.
Major Challenges
Data Limitations
- Requires high-resolution, high-quality datasets (often inconsistent due to sensor errors).
- Remote areas lack adequate sensor coverage, affecting model accuracy.
- Disagreement: Some believe India now has sufficient data (10x increase); others say quality/standardisation is still lacking.
Human Resource Gap
- Lack of experts fluent in both AI/ML and climate science.
- Climate science straddles multiple disciplines, making it hard to build integrated expertise.
- Need for collaborative institutions focused exclusively on AI-Climate research.
Interpretability & Trust Issues
- AI models are often black boxes — difficult to understand how/why they made a forecast.
- Traditional models offer transparency via physics equations and error correction methods.
- Calls for hybrid models combining AI/ML with physics-based approaches.
Global Perspective
- 2024 Heidelberg Forum: ML has succeeded in weather forecasting, but climate science remains challenging due to long-term unpredictability and atmospheric chaos.
- Future climate models need to generalize to a “warmer world” — hard for ML trained on present data.
AI/ML for Extreme Events
- AI holds promise in predicting extreme weather: heatwaves, cyclones, cloudbursts.
- February 2025 Nature Communications paper highlights AI’s role in risk communication, attribution studies.
- But warns of trustworthiness, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification concerns.
Way Forward
- Develop region-specific models for India’s diverse geography.
- Promote interdisciplinary research and AI-literacy among climate scientists.
- Need for critical mass of trained professionals and improved data accessibility.
- Government initiatives must focus on institutional collaboration, data infrastructure, and hybrid model development.
