Context:
In response to a declining young population in Andhra Pradesh, Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu announced plans to introduce legislation incentivizing families to have more children. This initiative aims to counteract the state’s fertility rates, which have fallen below the replacement level, potentially leading to significant long-term demographic challenges.
Relevance:
GS II: Government Policies and Interventions
Dimensions of the Article:
- Concerns of Southern States in India
- India’s Aging Population and Fertility Trends
- Concerns About an Aging Population
- Efficacy of Pro-Natalist Policies
- Why CM Naidu’s Comments Are Significant
- Way Forward
Concerns of Southern States in India
Population Trends and Parliamentary Representation
- Fertility Success: Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh have effectively reduced their fertility rates over the years through robust public health initiatives.
- Aging Population: This demographic success has led to a higher proportion of the aging population, which presents unique challenges, particularly concerning workforce sustainability and healthcare.
- Political Implications: Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has voiced concerns that the low population growth in Southern states might lead to reduced representation in the Indian Parliament. This is a significant issue as parliamentary seats are allocated largely based on population.
India’s Aging Population and Fertility Trends
Recent Data and Projections
- Data Delays: The 2021 Census has been delayed, making the most recent reliable data from the 2020 report by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
- Aging Demographic: Nationally, the aging population (60+) is set to increase, with a more pronounced rise in the Southern states due to their earlier achievement of low fertility rates.
- Fertility Disparities: Southern states have reached replacement fertility levels (2.1 children per woman) much earlier than Northern states like Uttar Pradesh, which is only expected to reach these levels by 2025.
Projected Population Growth
- Overall Growth: From 2011 to 2036, India’s population is expected to grow by approximately 31.1 crore, with significant contributions from states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.
- Southern Contribution: In contrast, the collective population increase from the five Southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Tamil Nadu) is projected to be only about 2.9 crore over the same period.
Elderly Population Dynamics
- Doubling of Elderly Population: The number of elderly persons is expected to more than double, rising from 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore by 2036.
- Regional Variations: Kerala will see nearly one in four people aged over 60 by 2036, indicating a significant shift towards an older demographic, whereas Uttar Pradesh will maintain a relatively younger demographic profile with only 12% aged 60+.
Concerns About an Aging Population
Increased Dependency Ratio
- An aging population leads to a higher dependency ratio, which is the proportion of non-working individuals (under 15 and over 60) compared to the working-age population. This shift demands more economic support from fewer working individuals.
Economic and Healthcare Challenges
- As the population ages, there is an increased need for healthcare services and social security, which can strain public resources and fiscal budgets, particularly in healthcare sectors specialized in geriatric care.
Political Implications
- A smaller younger population relative to other states can impact political representation, especially in the Lok Sabha. Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which have controlled population growth effectively, fear losing parliamentary seats to states with higher population growth, such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Efficacy of Pro-Natalist Policies
Mixed Global Success
- Countries like Japan, China, and various European nations have implemented pro-natalist policies to encourage higher birth rates, with varying degrees of success. While Scandinavian countries have seen some stabilization in fertility rates through supportive family systems and gender equality, nations like Japan and China have struggled to achieve significant results.
Economic and Cultural Factors
- Financial incentives alone often prove insufficient to boost fertility rates significantly, especially in societies with high levels of prosperity and education where the costs and lifestyle impacts of raising children can outweigh governmental incentives.
Why CM Naidu’s Comments Are Significant
Shift in Population Discourse
- CM Naidu’s remarks highlight a pivotal shift from past concerns over overpopulation to current challenges associated with underpopulation and aging demographics in certain regions.
Historical Context
- States like Andhra Pradesh were pioneers in achieving Replacement Level Fertility early on, impacting their current demographic challenges. The repeal of laws limiting the rights of individuals with more than two children to participate in local elections marks a significant policy reversal in response to these demographic trends.
Way Forward
Addressing Workforce Shortages Through Migration
- Internal migration from more populous northern states to the southern states could help balance the demographic and economic scales, providing a ready workforce that can immediately contribute to economic activities without the long-term costs of upbringing.
Focus on Productivity
- Improving labor productivity can compensate for lower population growth, ensuring that the economic output per capita remains high and sustainable.
Leveraging Demographic Dividend
- Capitalizing on India’s demographic dividend by maximizing the economic potential of its large young population can drive growth and development, offsetting some of the challenges posed by an aging demographic.
-Source: Indian Express
