Focus: GS-III Science and Technology, Disaster Management
Why in news?
Scientists have developed a model to address this problem using an adaptive strategy and the early phase of COVID-19 as an example.
Introduction
- Healthcare in a country faces a catch-22 situation in the early stages of an epidemic – specific and accurate tests are required to trace and isolate the infected, and to scale up the novel tests, one needs to have estimates of the expected number of infections weeks to months in advance.
- And then, these numbers need to be used to predict healthcare inventory requirements in every district of the nation.
- Mathematical modeling and simulations are some of the key tools for understanding, planning and decision making in the time of COVID-19.
Details and Benefits
- The model can be utilized to estimate key aspects of medical inventory requirements, a calculation that is required to scale up both the testing capabilities and the critical care facilities, which are essential to reduce the mortality.
- It would be extremely relevant for COVID-19, as the disease character and the behavioral patterns of the people change and affect the efficacies of disease spread and management in a second-wave, requiring constant alertness on the part of the forecasters.
- The team demonstrated that, with their approach, there is a universality to the evolution of the disease across countries that can then be used to make reliable predictions.
