Context : Declining Migration from Southern & Western States:
- Historically high migrant-sending States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Punjab have seen a sharpdrop in the number of workers emigrating to Gulf nations.
- Example: Kerala’s emigration fell from 82,000 (2014-16) to 60,000 (2021-24); Tamil Nadu’s from 1.3 lakh to 78,000.
- Punjab, a major contributor, also saw a decline from 94,000 to 39,000.
Relevance : GS 2(Social Justice)
- Sustained Migration from Northern & Eastern States:
- Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue to send a high volume of blue-collar workers to the Gulf, despite falling remittances.
- U.P. workers exceeded 4 lakh in both periods, while Bihar’s remained over 2 lakh.
- West Bengal and Rajasthan also saw moderate declines but still contribute significantly.
Changing Remittance Patterns:
- Gulf’s Declining Share in India’s Remittances:
- The share of remittances from UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait has significantly dropped.
- UAE fell from 26.9% (2016-17) to 19.2% (2023-24), Saudi Arabia from 11.6% to 6.7%, and Kuwait from 6.5% to 3.9%.
- Rise in Remittances from Advanced Economies:
- Inward remittances have increased from the U.S., U.K., Singapore, and Canada, suggesting a shift in migrant destinations.
- U.S. share rose from 22.9% to 27.7%, U.K. from 3.4% to 10.8%.
- State-wise Trends in Remittances:
- States with declining Gulf migration are receiving higher remittances.
- Maharashtra (16.7% to 20.5%), Kerala (19% to 19.7%), Tamil Nadu (8% to 10.4%) have seen growth.
- Bihar, U.P., West Bengal, and Rajasthan continue to receive a minimal share (1%-3%), despite sending more workers.
Migration Trends & Economic Implications:
- Possible Shift in Migration Destinations:
- Declining remittances from Gulf countries indicate that workers from Southern and Western States may be moving to advanced economies for better financial returns.
- Higher remittances from the U.S., U.K., and Singapore suggest a preference for white-collar jobs and skilled migration.
- Persistent Outflow from U.P. & Bihar Despite Low Wages:
- Limited employment opportunities in North and Eastern India may be forcing workers to migrate to Gulf nations despite stagnant or declining wages.
- Gulf migration remains a livelihood necessity rather than a choice for these workers.
- Electorate vs. Migration Skew:
- U.P. forms 15.8% of India’s electorate but accounted for 34% of ECs issued (2021-24).
- Bihar has 7.9% of the electorate but accounted for 17.4% of ECs issued.
- This indicates a disproportionately high dependence on Gulf migration for employment in these States.
Policy & Governance Concerns:
- Need for Skill Development & Diversified Job Creation:
- Enhancing skilled migration opportunities to advanced economies can improve remittance flows.
- Investments in domestic manufacturing and services are needed to reduce Gulf dependency.
- Reforms in Migration Policy & Worker Protections:
- Ensuring higher wages and better working conditions for Gulf migrants is crucial.
- Streamlining bilateral agreements with Gulf nations for better job security.
- Regional Economic Disparities:
- Southern and Western States are transitioning to a higher-remittance economy, while North and East India remain reliant on low-wage Gulf migration.
- A national strategy is needed to bridge this divide and create sustainable employment avenues.
