Key Developments:
- U.S. Policy Shift:
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Riyadh on February 18.
- This marks a reversal from the previous U.S. administration’s refusal to engage in peace talks with Russia.
- President Donald Trump has spoken with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)
Trump’s Approach:
- Unpredictability: Trump may modify his stance depending on strategic interests.
- Economic Proposition: Trump claims the U.S. spent $350 billion on Ukraine and seeks repayment through mineral rights.
- NATO Expansion: First U.S. President to explicitly link NATO expansion as a cause of the Ukraine war.
- Pressure on Zelenskyy:
- Criticized Zelenskyy as a ‘dictator.’
- Advocates for Ukrainian elections, aligning with Russian demands.
- Signals a withdrawal of U.S. support if Zelenskyy resists peace talks.
Ukraine’s Challenges:
- Military Situation:
- Russia has the upper hand; Ukraine’s counter-offensives have largely failed.
- Western funding is critical for Ukraine’s war effort.
- Political Resistance:
- Zelenskyy and his office, particularly Andriy Yermak, oppose territorial concessions.
- Ukraine’s European allies fear U.S. disengagement will weaken NATO.
Potential Peace Deal in Riyadh:
- Previous Attempts: A 2022 Turkey-brokered peace deal was blocked by the U.S. and U.K.
- Current Scenario:
- Saudi Arabia has strong ties with Russia and the West, making it a strategic venue.
- Trump may use economic and military leverage to push for a deal.
- If U.S. aid is withdrawn, Ukraine may have no choice but to negotiate.
Humanitarian Costs & Global Reactions:
- Casualties:
- Estimated 1 million lives lost, massive displacement in Ukraine.
- Ukraine lacks manpower despite Western military aid.
- Global Mediation Efforts:
- India and China support ending the war.
- PM Modi advised Putin that “this is not the time for war.”
- Underlying Conflict:
- Seen as a NATO vs. Russia proxy war rather than a direct Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Failure to implement Minsk Agreements and 2022 Turkey-mediated deal escalated the crisis.
India’s Role & Missed Opportunity?
- Why Riyadh? Traditional peace talks occurred in Helsinki, Brussels, or Geneva.
- India’s Balanced Stance:
- Maintained neutrality while supporting Russia on global platforms.
- Criticized Western sanctions.
- Potential to benefit from a U.S.-Russia reset, unlike Europe, which stands to lose influence.
Conclusion:
- The success of Trump’s peace efforts depends on his ability to pressure Zelenskyy and European leaders into negotiations.
- Without U.S. financial and military aid, Ukraine’s position may weaken, increasing the likelihood of a settlement.
- The shift in U.S. policy could reshape global alliances, impacting India, NATO, and broader geopolitical dynamics.
