Content:
- Gaza and Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy
- India as a bridge between the Global North and South
- Troubled waters
Gaza and Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy
Context :Trump’s ‘Expanding the Canvas’ Strategy
- A negotiation tactic where an initial extreme proposal is made to force stakeholders into a counter-offer.
- Trump’s proposal (February 4, 2025) suggested depopulating Gaza and converting it into a global tourist hub.
- Praised by Netanyahu, with implications for Saudi Arabia potentially joining the Abraham Accords.
- Saudi Arabia (MbS) rejected Israeli ties without a Palestinian state, shifting the geopolitical discourse.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)
Practice Question : Analyze the implications of Trump’s ‘Expanding the Canvas’ strategy in the context of West Asia’s geopolitical, security, and economic landscape. (250 words)
Geopolitical Reconfiguration in West Asia
- Post-October 7, 2023, the region has undergone intense turmoil, with new power dynamics emerging.
- Israel’s perceived invincibility weakened; Iran’s strategic outreach disrupted.
- The Axis of Resistance (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas) temporarily subdued but remains a latent threat.
- Heightened instability in the region due to the interplay of military actions and diplomatic maneuvering.
Political and Security Challenges
- Political Realignments:
- The Gaza war solidified the centrality of the Palestinian issue in regional negotiations.
- U.S. aims to expand the Abraham Accords but faces resistance due to ongoing conflicts.
- Ultra-religious Jewish factions and the Syrian militant group HTS gaining influence.
- Security Dynamics:
- Iranian nuclear ambitions remain a significant issue.
- Kurdish aspirations for autonomy continue to be a destabilizing factor.
- The Yemeni crisis remains unresolved despite Saudi Arabia’s partial disengagement.
Economic Challenges in West Asia
- War-Induced Economic Strains:
- Gaza’s reconstruction estimated at $50 billion; Lebanon ($8.5 billion); Syria (~$500 billion).
- Western sanctions further hinder economic recovery in war-torn regions.
- Structural Economic Issues:
- Heavy dependence on hydrocarbons, which face long-term decline due to global energy shifts.
- Trump’s energy policies (exit from Paris Agreement, “Drill, baby, drill”) disrupt oil markets.
- Potential oil price volatility threatens both U.S. shale industry and West Asian oil-dependent economies.
- Trump’s Tariff and Currency Policies:
- Sanctions and tariffs disrupt trade flows, affecting West Asian economic diversification.
- A strong U.S. dollar reduces regional competitiveness, exacerbating economic stagnation.
Saudi Arabia’s Role as a Regional Power
- Economic Powerhouse:
- GDP of $1.07 trillion; Saudi Public Investment Fund assets of ~$930 billion.
- Aramco market cap of ~$1.79 trillion, making it a key player in global energy markets.
- Strategic Maneuvering by MbS:
- Balanced relations with U.S., China, and Russia without alienating any.
- Exit from Yemen conflict and diplomatic normalization with Iran and Qatar.
- Played a key role in moderating OPEC+ decisions amid global energy market shifts.
- Challenges in U.S.-Saudi Relations:
- MbS seeks security guarantees and nuclear technology in exchange for normalizing ties with Israel.
- Gaza war has hardened Saudi Arabia’s stance on Palestinian statehood.
- U.S.-Saudi cooperation crucial for post-war reconstruction, but political divergences persist.
The Path Ahead: U.S.-Saudi-Israel Dynamics
- Trump’s impulsive diplomacy could either expedite or derail regional settlements.
- Saudi Arabia may fund regional reconstruction but demands meaningful Israeli concessions.
- Israeli leadership remains resistant to a two-state solution, complicating negotiations.
- Trump-MbS partnership could be pivotal in reshaping West Asia’s future but remains uncertain.
India as a bridge between the Global North and South
Introduction
- India has positioned itself as a key advocate for the Global South while simultaneously engaging with the Global North.
- This shift is evident in India’s leadership at forums like the Voice of Global South Summit and its role in G20 reforms (e.g., inclusion of the African Union).
- The approach differs from the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) and aims for a balanced, strategic presence in global affairs.
Relevance : GS 2(international Relations)
Practice Question : Discuss India’s evolving role as a bridge between the Global North and Global South. What challenges does it face in maintaining this position, and what steps can be taken to strengthen its role? (250 words)
Factors Influencing India’s Renewed Engagement
- Strategic Autonomy & Multipolarity
- Unlike NAM, India is not anti-Western but seeks cooperation with all blocs while maintaining independence.
- Strengthening ties with the U.S., EU, and new partners like Poland while championing the interests of developing nations.
- China Factor
- India and China compete for influence in Africa, Asia, and Latin America via investments and trade partnerships.
- India’s approach:
- Alternative development model (not debt-driven like China’s Belt & Road Initiative).
- Indo-Pacific Strategy (Quad with the U.S., Japan, and Australia counters China’s regional dominance).
- Economic & Developmental Cooperation
- India’s focus on sustainable, demand-driven assistance, not conditional aid like the West.
- Global Development Compact and ITEC program offer a human-centric, skills-based model for growth.
Challenges & Steps Needed for India’s Success
- Redefining Development Cooperation
- Shift from India-first approach to mutual learning and collaboration with the Global South.
- Avoid perception as a dominant power imposing policies—instead, promote equal partnerships.
- Human-Centric & Capacity Building Approach
- Expand beyond Mission LiFE (low consumption lifestyle) to economic empowerment models.
- Focus on Skill India, MSME cooperation, women entrepreneurship, and sustainability challenges.
- Strengthening Global Governance Role
- Beyond pushing for institutional reforms (e.g., UNSC, WTO, IMF), India must build domestic capacity for global leadership.
- Trilateral partnerships with experienced nations (e.g., Germany, France) for development programs.
- Long-term goal: Establish India-led global initiatives, creating an independent international cooperation framework.
Conclusion
- India must balance assertiveness with receptiveness—being the ‘Voice’ of the Global South requires listening.
- A collaborative and inclusive approach will enhance India’s credibility as a bridge between the Global North and South.
Troubled Waters
Context : Frequent Arrests & Detentions
- On February 8, 2024, the Sri Lankan Navy arrested 14 Indian fishermen from Tamil Nadu’s Ramanathapuram district for alleged poaching.
- Total arrests in 2024 have crossed 500 (528) for the first time in a decade; in 2014, it was 787.
- Courts in Sri Lanka have started imposing heavier fines and convictions, making release more difficult.
Relevance: GS 2(International Relations)
Practice Question : Critically examine the causes and implications of the India-Sri Lanka fisheries dispute in the Palk Bay region. Suggest policy measures to address the issue. (250 words)
- Use of Bottom Trawling:
- Tamil Nadu fishermen employ bottom trawling, which damages marine biodiversity and depletes fish stocks.
- Sri Lanka’s Northern Province fishermen oppose this method, as they are still recovering from the civil war and rely on sustainable fishing.
- International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) Violations:
- Indian fishermen frequently cross the IMBL into Sri Lankan waters, triggering diplomatic tensions.
- Unlike past instances where detained fishermen were quickly released, recent trends show increasing convictions.
Policy & Diplomatic Considerations
- Need for Bilateral Talks:
- The last formal talks between Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen were in November 2016.
- India raised the issue in the Joint Working Group meeting in October 2023, but Sri Lanka remains reluctant to engage in negotiations.
- Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister has urged the Indian government to secure the release of 97 fishermen and 216 boats.
- Comparative Perspective:
- The number of fishermen arrested in Sri Lanka is significantly higher than those detained in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar.
- This highlights a more systemic conflict rather than isolated incidents of maritime border violations.
Way Forward
- Short-Term Measures:
- Immediate discussions between Indian and Sri Lankan fishermen to explore interim solutions.
- Faster legal and diplomatic interventions to secure the release of detained fishermen.
- Stricter enforcement of IMBL regulations to prevent unauthorized fishing.
- Long-Term Solutions:
- Incentivizing Indian fishermen to move away from bottom trawling through subsidies and alternative fishing techniques.
- Promoting deep-sea fishing programs to reduce dependence on Palk Bay waters.
- Enhancing cooperation in marine resource management to ensure sustainable fishing practices.
