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Is poverty being underestimated in India?

Poverty Definition:

  • Historically, poverty was defined by calorie consumption, later updated through National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data.
  • Over time, discrepancies between NSSO and National Accounts led to concerns about data accuracy.
  • Methodological shifts, like the introduction of multiple recall periods, have complicated comparisons.

Relevance : GS 2 (Social Issues)

Debate on Poverty Decline:

  • P.C. Mohanan: Questions the drastic decline in poverty based on the varying poverty lines and data inconsistencies.
  • N.R. Bhanumurthy: Acknowledges a decline but attributes it to high GDP growthgovernment welfare programs, and improved public delivery systems, suggesting further decline in poverty.

Concerns with HCES Data:

  • Issues with recall periods (e.g., 7 days for food, 30 days for others) affect data consistency.
  • NSSO’s new methodology (multi-sitting household visits) improves data accuracy but presents challenges when compared with older poverty lines.
  • The need for a new, universally agreed poverty line based on current methodologies is emphasized.

Rural vs Urban Poverty:

  • PCM: Rural-urban consumption gap is narrowing, with rural areas improving and urban consumption diversifying.
  • NRB: Calls for clearer definitions of rural and urban areas to refine poverty estimation.

Upward Revision of Poverty Line:

  • PCM: Cites a study estimating 25poverty using Rangarajan’s methodology, but doubts a straightforward update to the poverty line.
  • NRBDisagrees with the 25% figure, citing international data like UNDP’s estimate of 12.9% poverty in India in 2019.
  • Emphasizes the need for a consistent methodology for poverty line estimation.

Multidimensional Poverty Index Criticisms:

  • UNDP’s methodology is global, leaving countries to tailor it. Indias multidimensional poverty index has 12 indicators, including bank accounts and maternal health, which is seen as a positive by NRB.
  • PCM: Critiques the index for its static nature, where once a household achieves basic services, it remains classified as non-deprived, potentially underestimating ongoing vulnerabilities.

Conclusion:

  • Both experts agree that while poverty has reduced, the methodologies for measuring it are inconsistent, and there is a need for clearer definitions and better data to ensure more accurate poverty assessments.

January 2025
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