Editorials/Opinions Analysis For UPSC 27 December 2024

Content:

1. An avoidable tragedy
2. Pushed through
3. Tapping into Kazakhstan’s rare earths potential

An Avoidable Tragedy

Context :

• High Incidence Rate: India records one of the highest stampede-related fatalities globally, with over 3,000 deaths from 3,935 incidents between 1996 and 2022 (NCRB).

Relevance : GS 2(Governance )

Practice Question: What are the main causes of stampedes in India, and how can crowd management be improved to prevent such tragedies?(250 Words )

• Major Causes:
  • Religious Gatherings: High density of attendees and inadequate facilities.
    • Examples:
      • Sabarimala (2011): 106 deaths on a narrow pathway.
      • Kumbh Mela (2013): 36 deaths due to overcrowding at a railway station.

• Political Rallies: Overcrowding and poor crowd management.
  • Example: Gandhi Maidan, Patna (2014): 30+ fatalities.

• Celebrity Appearances: Enthusiastic fans, inadequate security, and poor planning.
  • Example: Hyderabad (2023): Tragic stampede during a promotional event for Pushpa 2: The Rule, resulting in one death and one critical injury.

Case Study: Hyderabad Stampede (2023)

• Incident Details:
  • Actor Allu Arjun’s surprise appearance drew an overwhelming crowd.
  • Resulted in the death of a 35–year–old woman and critical injuries to her child.

• Aftermath:
  • ₹2 crore compensation pledged by the actor and team.
  • Blame attributed to the Hyderabad police and event for lack of preparation and poor crowd control.

Key Issues in Crowd Management

Negligence in Planning:

• Lack of foresight in estimating crowd size.
  • Inadequate infrastructure to handle large gatherings.

Inadequate Protocols:

• Absence of clear entry/exit strategies.
  • Poor deployment of trained personnel.

Emergency Response Gaps:

• Delay in medical aid.
  • Ineffective chaos management during crises.

Actionable Measures

Infrastructure and Comfort:

• Spatial Planning: Multiple, clearly designated entry and exit points.
  • Thermal Comfort: Provide shaded areas to prevent heat-related exhaustion.
  • Hydration Facilities: Ensure availability of drinking water stations.

Advanced Crowd Management:

• Predictive Planning: Use AI-based tools to estimate crowd density and movement patterns.
  • Clear Communication: Install PA systems for instructions in case of emergencies.

Emergency Preparedness:

• Trained Personnel: Deploy security staff skilled in crowd control and first aid.
  • Medical Assistance: On-site ambulances and well-equipped medical teams.
  • Simulation Drills: Regularly conduct mock drills for better preparedness.

Policy Reforms:

• Mandate detailed risk assessments for all public events.
  • Introduce stricter accountability mechanisms for organizers and local authorities.

Awareness and Education:

• Public campaigns to educate citizens on safe behavior in crowded spaces.
  • Clear signage and visual guides for navigation during large events.

Conclusion

India’s repeated failures in crowd management highlight systemic deficiencies in planning and execution.

Pushed Through

Background

• Project Details:
  • Budget: ₹44,605 crore.
  • Objective: Divert “excess” water from the Ken River basin to the Betwa River basin for farmland and settlements.
  • Infrastructure: Includes the Daudhan Dam, situated inside the Panna Tiger Reserve.

Relevance : GS 3(Infrastructure )

Practice Question: What are the environmental and social concerns regarding the Ken-Betwa River link project, and how can these issues be addressed?(250 Words )

• Government Stance:
  • Project flagged off by the Prime Minister despite ongoing concerns and opposition.
  • Approval granted by the Union Cabinet in 2021, even as the National Green

 Tribunal (NGT) was deliberating its environmental clearance challenge.

Concerns and Challenges

Environmental Impact:

• Deforestation: Lakhs of trees to be cut, destabilizing fragile ecosystems.
  • Impact on Panna Tiger Reserve: Violation of environmental norms restricting projects in ecologically sensitive zones.
  • Ecosystem Destabilization: Hydroelectric dam construction may harm biodiversity and disrupt habitats.

Hydrological Issues:

• Data Secrecy: Hydrological data for both basins not disclosed, citing their classification as part of the Ganga basin.
  • Seasonal Floods and Droughts: Studies indicate both basins experience similar rainfall and sedimentation patterns, undermining the rationale of “surplus” and “deficit” basins.
  • Future Water Demand: Potential increase in Ken basin demand could result in both basins suffering water shortages.

Cost-Effectiveness:

• Alternative solutions, such as maintaining environmental flows and enhancing natural storage, could achieve similar results at a lower cost.

Sociopolitical Implications:

• Projects like Parbati-Kalisindh-Chambal link indicate a trend of politically motivated decisions over ecological sustainability.

Potential Consequences

Long-Term Sustainability:

• Project viability is questionable due to fluctuating rainfall and sedimentation patterns.
  • May fail to provide long-term water security for either basin.

Ecological Costs:

• Irreversible damage to forests, wildlife, and ecosystems in the Panna region.
  • Possible decline in regional biodiversity.

Economic Burden:

• Mitigation of adverse outcomes will impose costs on local populations.
  • Escalating investments reduce the likelihood of policy course correction.

Public Accountability:

• Lack of transparency undermines trust and accountability in governance.

Actionable Recommendations

Transparency and Data Sharing:

• Release hydrological and environmental impact data for public and expert scrutiny.

Alternative Solutions:

• Enhance natural water retention mechanisms and maintain ecological flows in river basins.

Strict Adherence to Environmental Laws:

• Enforce strict compliance with norms for projects in ecologically sensitive areas.

Community-Centric Approach:

• Engage local communities and stakeholders in decision-making and impact assessments.

Independent Audits and Reviews:

• Commission periodic audits to evaluate project feasibility and ecological impact.

Conclusion

While the Ken-Betwa project aims to address water scarcity and boost agriculture, it risks significant environmental and economic costs.

Tapping into Kazakhstan’s rare earths potential

Context of Rising Demand for Rare Earths

• Global Transition to Clean Energy: Increased demand for rare earths due to renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, electric vehicles).
• India’s Growing Need: As the 3rd largest carbon emitter, India is focusing on renewable energy, intensifying the need for rare earths for sectors like electronics, defense, and clean energy.
• India’s Current Dependence: Despite being the 5th-largest holder of rare earths, India relies heavily on China for imports due to a lack of advanced extraction technologies.

Relevance : GS 3(Minerals )

Practice Question :Why is Kazakhstan important for India in terms of rare earths, and what are the challenges in working together on this issue? (250 Words )

China’s Monopoly on Rare Earths

• Global Control: China holds over 30% of the world’s rare earth reserves and produces 70% of global supply, dominating the market.
• India’s Import Reliance: India sources 60% of its rare earth imports from China, which dictates the terms of the supply chain.

• China’s Strategic Moves:
  • Supply Disruptions: China has halted supplies of antimony and imposed bans on technologies crucial for rare earth extraction and magnets.
  • National Security Concerns: China has used rare earth supply cuts as leverage in geopolitical tensions, further heightening security concerns for countries dependent on Chinese exports.

• Geopolitical Risk: The war in Ukraine has disrupted the global supply of critical minerals (like antimony), highlighting vulnerabilities in the current supply chain and prompting countries, including India, to diversify sources.

Kazakhstan’s Strategic Position

• Rich Resource Base: Kazakhstan is a key player with access to 15 of the 17 rare earth elements, including vital resources like dysprosium.

• Geopolitical and Economic Alignment:
  • Close ties between India and Kazakhstan via the ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy and transport initiatives (e.g., International North-South Transport Corridor).
  • Kazakhstan’s role as a partner in reducing India’s over-reliance on China.

• Strategic Collaborations: Kazakhstan has agreements with Japan, Germany, the U.S., South Korea, and the EU to explore and extract rare earths, signaling its rising importance in the global market.
• Resource Projection: Kazakhstan’s extraction of rare earths, particularly dysprosium, is expected to grow significantly from 2024-2029, enhancing its role in global supply chains.

Kazakhstan’s Mining and Technological Advances

• Industrial Growth:
  • Hosts world-leading factories for beryllium and scandium (critical for telecommunications).
  • Among top producers of tantalum and niobium, essential for clean energy technologies and nuclear reactors.

• Emerging Technologies:
  • Focus on lithium, heat–resistant alloys, and other critical minerals like tungsten and battery materials.
  • Metallurgical plants extract essential minerals like bismuth, antimony, selenium, tellurium, gallium, and indium, critical for renewable energy production.

• Technological Prioritization: Kazakhstan is investing in advanced extraction and processing technologies to further expand its position in the rare earth sector.

Implications for India’s Energy and Resource Security

• India’s Renewable Energy Ambitions:
  • India’s pledge to achieve 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030 requires securing rare earths for clean energy technologies like wind turbines and solar panels.
  • India plans to increase mining output by 400% over the next decade but faces limitations in its supply chain.

• Reducing Dependence on China:
  • India’s over-reliance on China for rare earths poses strategic risks amid potential global shifts (e.g., changes in U.S. foreign policy).
  • Kazakhstan presents a geographically closer, politically stable, and resource-rich alternative to China.

• Diversification Strategy: Collaboration with Kazakhstan can enhance India’s resource security, mitigate supply chain disruptions, and support sustainable energy goals by tapping into Kazakhstan’s rare earth reserves.

Challenges to Overcome

• Connectivity: Direct trade routes and infrastructure between India and Kazakhstan need development to facilitate smooth trade.
• Technological Gaps: Both countries lack advanced extraction technologies necessary for large-scale production of rare earths.
• Investment and Private Sector Engagement: Encouraging private sector participation in joint ventures and mining projects is crucial for tapping into Kazakhstan’s potential.

The Way Forward: India-Kazakhstan Collaboration

• India-Central Asia Rare Earths Forum:
  • Proposed by India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to enhance cooperation between India and Central Asian countries in rare earths and strategic minerals.
  • Aims to create a regional market and reduce reliance on China by fostering bilateral training, sharing geological data, sustainable extraction practices, and joint ventures.

• Private Sector Involvement: Boosting partnerships through private sector investment and technological collaboration can address challenges in extraction and production.